2006 - chances for a Democratic senate

From David Schraub comes an interesting analysis and breakdown.

Consider me on the record that I think the Democrats will take back neither the House nor the Senate in 2006. There is just too much ground to make up. I think they will make significant gains, to be sure, but I think they will end up just short in both.

However, it's 2008 where they really stand a chance to clean up. Kos has the run-down of races in 2006 and 2008, and the latter looks really good for the boys in blue.

Well, I think its a bit premature to be blustering around about 2008, but as to '06: I think that where the Democrats have the best chance is the Senate by far. The House has comparatively few races up for grabs, due in part to gerrymandering; if the Democrats are going to take something it would most likely be the Senate. Schraub throws some water on that idea, but I have hope. Obviously, much depends on what happens between now and November; I think that the GOP has set the Democrats up for a good win, and I think that the national mood will certainly contribute to Democratic turnout, but ultimately these races will be local, and will be determined largely by the candidates doing the actual running.

In this respect, the crop seems good this year. There are quite a few candidates that I like, including Webb from Virginia, whose inclusion (he's not your blue-blooded liberal) should be doing more to douse the dumbass idea that giving Leiberman the boot in the ass is pulling the party to the left.