Thursday, June 15, 2006

Sweden's economy

According to this report, Sweden's actual unemployment is 15%, not the 5% typically reported. This is pretty significant. Sweden has gotten a lot of hype for being such a well-functioning economy with an expansive welfare state, but this report is going to throw some cold water onto that optimism. It is interesting to note that Sweden has experienced robust GDP growth throughout this period. According to the study, this is a result of decreased regulation of business, which makes sense. Certainly France's stringent requirements on business have hurt their ability to grow as an economy. Then there's this part:

[The report] said the country could not rely on future improvements in private-sector productivity, as the catch-up effect that had driven these developments would decline over time.

The ageing population would put the public sector under "intolerable pressure" unless productivity improved, it added.

"If nothing else changes, the resulting increase in welfare costs would become too large to finance through the current tax system in only 10 to 20 years," McKinsey said.

If Sweden is not able to provide for its people given its already extremely high levels of taxation, this is a sure warning sign for social democratic states in Europe and elsewhere. Higher levels of taxation are only going to make Sweden's current economic growth levels harder to sustain.


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