Friday, June 09, 2006

Economics baby

Not knowing much about economics, I wanted to point a question to you guys.

I came across this essay:

How bad will it be? In historical terms, the last depression was relatively short and mild. The longest depression on record was the Dark Ages. Residents of the old USSR and Mao's China suffered through a depression that lasted decades. I'm not predicting it will be that bad, if only because the U.S. has basically much sounder traditions and institutions and vastly more accumulated capital. But it's hard to overestimate how serious this could be. I sometimes joke that it will likely be worse than even I think it will be.

Getting back to whether it's truly inevitable, it's a question of degree. The recession of the late 1970s and early 1980s involved a terrible stock market, 15% inflation with interest rates to match, 10% unemployment and a near war with the USSR. But the country not only hung together, it went on to a tremendous rebound. My guess is, however, that the last 20 years of good times will later be viewed as an economic Indian Summer before a harsh winter.


Read the whole essay; in fact, check out the whole site if you haven't.

I'm mostly curious in your thoughts on the state of the economy today and more importantly, 5-10-15 years down the road. Obviously the national debt is soaring, the budget is soaring, but what does that mean in real terms for most Americans? Are fears about depression overblown, or very real? What are the steps by which those problems can be alleviated?

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