... and another thing!

There's another interesting piece of news that might get lost in the shuffle - Bilbray (the Republican) won the seat recently vacated by Randy "Duke" Cunningham" .

Below, this analysis from slate:

In the end, whatever conclusions the parties draw, the real lesson of the Bilbray victory may be that the structural rules of politics hold: Money and districts drawn to maximize party advantage will help the party in power. That won't keep the GOP from losing seats, and it won't make the next five months pretty. But it's a glimmer of hope for a party whose expectations have dropped so low that merely retaining control of Congress will be trumpeted as a great victory.

I'm curious as to what kind of bellwhether this is going into November. This was a race that Democrats sorely wanted to win, because a pickup here in a solidly Republican district would have had Republicans shaking in their boots, as well as advancing the Democrats' cause. The fact that they didn't is either a testament to the powers of incumbency or the overstated "Democratic wave"; could this indicate that the Republicans will maintain control of both houses this November?

I will personally say that I hope not. First of all, the Democrat party at this point is in a struggle between the centrist DLC'ers and the hard-left antiwar faction. Both are fighting for the party's soul, but I would say at this point that the antiwar left is the much more passionate of the two, and as a result going into November could potentially play a much more significant role getting candidates elected. What this could mean, besides more oversight of the executive which lord would be a relief, is a lunge to the hard left, in turn alienating moderates and providing an opening for a more moderate Republican to run and win in 2008 (especially if the party nominates an anti-war leftie in '08).

This is the scenario that seems most ideal to me: the House or Senate in Democratic hands in '06, the Dems overplay their hands for the next two years but maintain control over the House or Senate in '08, and a moderate Republican runs to the center in '08 and leads with a hostile congress. Divided government would do wonders for this country.

On the other hand, a loss for the Democratic party, when so many things are working in their favor, would maybe cause the party to reassess its soul, and maybe provide impetus to rush to the center, and provide good leadership that does not rely solely on a hatred of Bush.

But... not bloody likely.